A Coffee Market Update

I find it interesting to keep an eye on the market cycles where coffee is concerned. If for some other reason than mere interest, tracking the coffee market also helps me time coffee purchases to make my few dollars go further. So, figuring what is helpful to one is helpful to more, here's a quick summary of a few varietals new market situations.

Brazil is the world's leading coffee producer, somewhere between 60-80% by volume depending on which website you use for statistics. Brazil's market effects everyone's business, including the roasters you buy from every month (week or even day, preferably). Most espresso blends (including my own: Espresso Vein Blend) contain around 10-20% Brazilian as their foundation (or in lower quality cases, as filler- Mississippi Mud). So, if you're an espresso fanatic, especially if you pull your own shots, you should keep an eye on the price of Brazilian beans. Right now, Brazil is facing it's inclement weather season. Even though this period is expected to have little impact on the coffee-growing regions of the country, it will cause some price increase due to speculation of the possibility of lost crops. Brazil's production is up 19% from last year, mostly due to increased demand from the specialty coffee industry- this will mean that if crops are hurt, demand will shove prices higher than any time previous. If you're worried, grab a pound of espresso or a Brazilian varietal before August to avoid an extra couple dollars expense if crops are hit harder by than expected.

African coffees are a consistent favorite by the coffee elites. Its more aggressive taste and exciting profiles make it desired by those caffeine fanatics who just cannot get enough. Kenya and Ethiopia are consistent contenders for the African coffee crown in specialty markets, but an reemerging producer in the center of the continent is Uganda ( Burundi and Rwanda are almost brand-new to the specialty coffee game). Developing surprisingly quickly as a specialty coffee haven, Uganda's market is a great barometer for coffee producing countries who are just getting into the game. Infrastructure and demand for the product are huge- and both are being developed quickly. After Uganda's bout with coffee wilt disease in '96-'97, the country has rebuilt its industry around improved farming techniques and increased focus on Arabica plants (rather than its traditionally dominant Robusta). Recently though, a drought caused the market in Ugandan beans to contract, fairly significantly, by a negative 7.5%, down around 30,000 bags from this time last year. What does this mean for the emerging specialty coffee market? Those brand new Ugandan varietals offered by so many of our favorite roasters will be pulled in favor of more cost efficient alternatives like Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi (which are similar in make-up, too). My suggestion is to buy quickly if you can find any Ugandan around, or look for Rwanda or Burundi as replacements.

My last market summary covers an often overlooked and newly emerging specialty coffee origin: India. The website I obtained this information from did an excellent job of condensing the need-to-know stuff, so I won't try to improve it too much. Here is the most relevant stuff with the link to the entire article:

Mumbai, July 7 - India coffee exports jumped about 43 percent to 200,830 tonnes between Oct. 1, 2009 and July 5, 2010, the state-run Coffee Board said on its website on Wednesday.

Okay, wow. 43% is huge. India is gaining ground in the coffee producing market, and quickly. Along its coasts, especially the east coast of the subcontinent, coffee is turning into a new crop of choice. Only 4.5% of the world's coffee is produced in India, but at this growth rate, Indian coffee may become more commonplace in the US and Great Britain. Start doing some research on Indian coffees. Find out what varieties you'd be most interested in, that way when Indian coffee inevitably shows up at your roaster, you won't have to take a leap of faith.

Soon, I'll be roasting a batch of the following coffees to map their unique development through the process: Brazil, Rwanda, and Sumatra. Perhaps one at a time, maybe all at once, I'm not sure. Check back soon to watch the magic!

Lord, thank you for such a diverse world with such varied opportunity. You are a God with an imagination, for sure. Keep my head deflated and on straight. Here we go.

Far too long...

It's been nearly a month and a half since my last opportunity to post anything here. To those of you who check periodically for new posts, I apologize. You know that little thing that sometimes gets in the way of what we enjoy doing... life? It popped up again.

I've just completed 9 credit hours in 4 weeks, pushing me toward my goal of graduating from Mizzou in May; I now need 24 credit hours to graduate with two degrees: History and Religious Studies. I know those are probably the first areas of interest you would have pinned on me since I've started a coffee shop on campus here and continue to be a coffee fanatic... but this is the real me, a history loving, religiously studying, coffee freak.

I don't want you to expect some major post today, but I do have a story to share. Yesterday after church, my family and I went over to a friend from church's house for lunch. They (a married couple) entertained us for a few hours very comfortably. Inevitably it seemed, the conversation turned to coffee. 

This seems to be a pattern. Whenever I'm around, with people who know anything of me, the talk turns to coffee. Why? There are a million topics we could have shared yesterday, none having anything to do with MY beloved mistress, coffee. In fact, I actively tried to steer the conversation away from coffee towards the beginning, but to no avail. This may seem a bit odd, that a man in love with the stuff would avoid talking about it. My reasoning here is that whenever the conversation begins to turn the direction of my love, I get very enthusiastic and begin to sound like a lunatic.

This may be the reason why people enjoy talking coffee with me though, because I get so into it- I turn into a coffee information geyser, gushing coffee knowledge to the laymen and women who rapid fire questions to what they perceive as the coffee guru in their midst. I was even conned into bringing by small roaster over (their house is a mere 80 yards from my own) and demonstrating (in vague terms) how the coffee roasting process is carried out. I left a bit for them to try in the next few days, giving them ownership in the product- all things I had done while working in the industry full-time. It was like I had been selling coffee to them the entire time without a real motivation- beyond my own passion, that is.

Here is the key, I think. Those of us in the industry who are selling coffee for the money and exclusively so, are in danger of losing the "spark" that people like my neighbors see and exploit for their own growth in the subject. Without the "spark", the love of coffee, the burning passion for this silly subject- those who are nominally interested in coffee can never be persuaded to anything more. So, to those of you who are in the business, cultivate your passion for your product. Your passion will show and it will sell.

Lord, thank you for a great day yesterday. Thank You for great friends in the church. I pray I could have a passion for Your Word and Your love like I do for this menial substance, coffee. Keep my head deflated and on straight. Here we go.

Grammatical Error, Unintentional Truth

Well folks, the cat is out of the bag, or perhaps more fitting, "the coffee is out of the factories". 

Who was the marketing executive who approved this billboard? Really Starbucks, you're going to put up a sign that proclaims to the world the truth of your crappy coffee sourcing? I realize what the message was supposed to convey, but major AD FAIL by the Green Mermaid on this one, ouch. Thank you, SPRUDGE.

While we're on the topic of Starbucks and it's relation to farm-sourced coffee, I want to bring up the Farmer Loan program by Starbucks. This loan program is set up with the intention to give lower-interest loans to farmers who need extra liquid capital while their crops are still ripening, allowing them to bring their crops to fruition and sell them at maximum prices to international specialty markets instead of local garbage collectors. This program sounds legit and helpful, but let me share with you some potential abuses I see coming down the road. 

Starbucks is giving these very needy people a hand-up, and I can appreciate that along with everyone else in the world with a soul. I'm not trying to be a huge downer, but the temptation to lock these farmers into no-option sales is obvious. By giving them the loans (even if it is at a lower rate), Starbucks could very easily slide in a fine print clause stating something like, 

...and the terms of the 16 percent loan will never increase unless the farmer elects to sell the fully-grown product to another buyer, namely any competitor to Starbucks Corp. or its affiliates.  Upon breaking the terms of the low interest loan, the interest rate will rise to the regional standard, 43 percent. ...

Although the previous excerpt is completely hypothetical, meaning there is no evidence for this practice taking place (at least that I'm aware of), but hopefully this illuminates what could easily happen without a watchful eye on the situation. These farmers could be lured into low-interest loans which would result in their loss of independence and acquisition of new de facto owners; their labor would not be their own, but owned by Starbucks. I think this is even more likely to take place now due to the rise of the Third Wave of coffee roasters, which put increasing pressure on Starbucks' quality standards, and their identity as Specialty Coffee; this also helps to create a great alternative buyer of high-end specialty coffee for growers. Let's pray Starbucks doesn't attempt to pervert this loan program and use it to fix their sourcing prices by securing their business from outside competition. 

Lord, thank You for good companies doing good work. I pray You protect their minds from the attacks of greed and harmful self-interest. Keep my head deflated and on straight. Here we go.  

(I apologize for the crazy fonts. Blogger is being a jerk-face today)

Best Coffee on the Interstate

Well, that's fitting:

Save your pie-hole and throw that crap in a pothole.They probably brew it in giant vats and ship it to the gas stations already brewed, it sure tastes like it. I tell you what, that coffee is better served thrown on the pavement than drank!

Lord, please deliver me from this delivery of coffee sin. Keep me head deflated and on straight. Here we go.

Home Roasting: Part 1

This post has been a long time in coming. I've had the opportunity to roast over 50 ultra-micro batches of coffee by now; this makes me feel like I can comment on the home roasting experience more thoroughly than a month ago, but where to start? In part one I'll outline the pieces of equipment and my bean selections, then in part two, the process and results.

My roaster of choice is the Toastess hot air corn popper. This machine is capable of roasting about 1/2 cup of un-roasted "green" coffee beans (actually are the seeds of the coffee fruit) at a time, equivalent to about 75 grams (1/6 lb). Obviously this popper is not designed for coffee, but does function surprisingly well. Any more than 1/2 cup and the beans do not circulate effectively and become very unevenly roasted. This uneven roast is especially noticeable in lighter roasts where the outside and ends of the coffee are the only areas effectively roasted. This uneven roasted effect is referred to as "tipped" coffee, not a flattering label. First thing you want to eliminate from the package is the plastic hood that is on top- that thing will start melting after 3 or 4 roasts, even less if you do them back to back. Also, if you plan on roasting to French or Viennese (God forbid), make sure you clean the popper out as best you can  after each roast to make it go more miles with you.

The popper does a decent job, but nowhere near the professional level of a drum roaster used by Northwest Coffee Roasters, Kaldi's Coffee, or Stumptown. Obviously, this popper and the roasting I'm engaging in is for educational purposes primarily. I have, however, already sold about 10 pounds of coffee to a few interested friends which helps pay for the bulk raw bean purchases also needed. For these raw beans and the intel on how to get the best roasted product out of them, I turn to Sweetmarias.com. So far, I've gotten their ugly Sumatra grade 1 Mandheling, FTO Ethiopia Oromia Yirgacheffe, Guatemala Acatenango- Finca La Soledad, Rwanda Gkongoro Nyarusiza, and their mass produced Brazil Cerrado Fazenda Aurea. I'm not including the names of these regions and farms just to impress, but also to show that they do their sourcing directly with farmers which pays the farmers more for their product and also ensures that Sweetmarias obtains a better product. I'll save my analysis of these individual coffees for another post.

Other pieces needed for the roasting process are: two steel colanders for air-cooling of the roasted beans, a timer, a large bowl to catch the chaff blown out of the popper, a wooden spoon for stirring, and some porcelain containers with airtight locking lids for storing the fresh roasted coffee (right).

Also, something that I've found increasingly useful is a small 3 cup size french press to sample the coffee you've roasted; this is to make sure that the roast time you've used is what works best for the coffee. You wouldn't want to roast 3 pounds of an expensive Rwandan coffee too dark before you cupped it and noticed it tastes like St*rb*cks! Actually, the more I think about it, I want to buy a second small press to use for a comparison. This way I can have a previously roasted batch of the same variety side-by-side with a new batch and see what I like and dislike about each, changing the roast appropriately. Lastly, get a nice digital scale for weighing out correct amounts of beans in case you want to sell some. Scales can be used for weighting accurate amounts of water for brewing consistently, as well as weighing the raw beans you want to roast- very handy.

All-in-all, the popper is worth the purchase, the experience is worth the hassle, and the savings you see by buying raw beans (roughly $5-6/lb vs. $10-12 roasted) helps to recoup the wallet abuse, especially if you can manage to sell a few pounds to friends in your church willing to experiment with your hobby. I have a great time roasting, and I know you will too, just don't take yourself too seriously ;-).

Lord, thank you for creativity and curiosity. I pray these character elements would remain in good proportion in the life You have given me. Keep my head deflated and on straight. Here we go.

A Time For Reflection

I've taken quite a bit of time off from blogging, as you may have noticed. My personal life went through a bit of an overhaul and my attention had to be focused on more pressing issues. Vida Coffee Co is under construction, but I am no longer employed there. My mission to get this project off the ground was a success, so I felt my consulting job there could end fulfilled.

Over spring break, I've traveled around quite a bit, keeping me busy and off my blog. I do have substantial home roasting experience now, and do plan on sharing these experiences soon, possibly as soon as this week. Since this post is basically just designed to reassure you that I am still alive and blogging, I'll leave you with a short story.

While having Easter dinner "down home", I had a conversation with my brother-in-law, a barista for Starbucks. He showed me his new "Elite" training manual for only the most valuable baristas. His enthusiasm for the coffee company is muted a bit due to my regular injection of reality into his coffee knowledge (sharing the truth of how Starbucks is getting less and less 'special', and losing influence because of it). After reading through this 'confidential' manual full of run-of-the-mill coffee facts with knowledge accessible to anyone with Wikipedia, I found that this 'elite' training was no more than what I would consider standard for my employees. I think this standardized underachievement policy, promoted by Starbucks and others like them, significantly retards the advancement of coffee knowledge the "Third Wave" is trying to develop.

In March 2008, Pulitzer Prize winning food critic Jonathan Gold of the LA Weekly defined the third wave of coffee by saying:

“The first wave of American coffee culture was probably the 19th-century surge that put Folgers on every table, and the second was the proliferation, starting in the 1960s at Peet’s and moving smartly through the Starbucks grande decaf latte, of espresso drinks and regionally labeled coffee. We are now in the third wave of coffee connoisseurship, where beans are sourced from farms instead of countries, roasting is about bringing out rather than incinerating the unique characteristics of each bean, and the flavor is clean and hard and pure."^[1]

Without knowledgeable baristas in our coffee shops (coming standard), our customers will miss their greatest opportunity to learn about the true potential specialty coffee has to offer. Things like micro-roasting, single-origin espressos, single-cup brewing, cupping knowledge, and the like will all be passed over because these topics only are fitting for the 'elite' among us. Bologna. These topics should be common knowledge and commonly discussed with our customers to help broaden their coffee horizons, and in effect, widen the reach of our commercial interests.

Lord, keep my head deflated and on straight. I pray You would bless me in my new work. Help me to perform well and keep my coffee standards high. Here we go.

1. ^ La Mill: The Latest Buzz LA Weekly, March 13, 2008

Production Decline: An Opportunity For Price Increase

I've read several articles in the last week discussing what I have already addressed at some length: the world's waning coffee production. This slack in supply is going to be met with an intensified demand, and therefore a heightened price tag for consumers of all types. As a consumer, my first thought is to how I can avoid the wallet pinch this coffee quake is going to wreak on me. Can I buy green beans now, store them and roast them at my convenience later to stave off the effects of rising prices to me personally? Can I move to enjoying varietals that would be in greater supply, and in effect, have a lower price? After much pondering, researching, and investigation, I realize that we're all missing a great opportunity.

What truly sparked this thought was an article entitled, "Africa Key to Meeting Increased Demand for Coffee". This article addresses the requirements necessary for implementing this idea, the idea to grow more coffee to keep supply high enough for the growing demand. Investments in African infrastructure would need to be immense to boost the capability of growers there to meet the needs of the world's demand. The concept is to bring African coffee growing into the 21st century, to invest in the industry and bring about a renaissance of cultivation with its basis in the foundation of modern principles and economics. A fine dream, but I this action would defeat itself in the end. 

I understand the drive to invest in the African coffee producing infrastructure, I do. When Africa makes more coffee, more efficiently, at a higher quality, the consumer wins. Roasters get to source better beans from more producers at still low prices to meet their growing demand. Everybody wins, right? No. The farmers still lose when it comes down to it. Upping their production capabilities simply raises the supply and drops overall demand which, in turn, lowers their prices once more. Granted, the farmers will be selling more beans, but will the end growth in sales really be a significant profit? I think not. There is one fact of the coffee industry I have picked up on above all others and that is that the farmer always loses. How much he/she loses is the only variable. What I propose in this new situation we have found ourselves in is a bit strange, but worth considering, I think. Do nothing.

So, worldwide demand is growing significantly. Great! it seems that worldwide supply is dropping temporarily, too. Here's where my plan takes effect. Use this period of lower production (and higher prices) to make a shift in coffee sales practices. Get used to the idea of paying a bit more for raw beans. Start budgeting for pricier goods. Pass a bit of the cost on to the consumer. The effects of this when the supply of raw beans recovers will be a higher standard of living for the farmers. If production stays low enough for a long enough time (I do not claim to know how long), perhaps demand will have grown enough to keep genuine coffee prices at their raised value when production catches up. This genuine price hike will accomplish more than the Fair Trade pricing structure has been able to artificially.

Just a thought. If we're all struggling to get farmers paid better for their high-quality beans, why not use a genuine market fluctuation to affect the change? Why not use a natural event to start paying these farmers like we said we wanted to? I think the only reason why we wouldn't comply is because we really did not want to pay them much better in the first place. What it means is that all those roasters who gloated about being "Fair Trade Certified" were really just using it as a marketing ploy. Let the reduction in supply raise prices and lets keep paying those raised rates after its all over too. Just a thought.

Lord, thank You for changes in life to keep things interesting, but also Lord, thank You for remaining constant. That too, is very valuable. Keep my head deflated and on straight. Here we go.